As blackouts have hit 24 provinces and municipalities around the country this year, people are becoming more and more concerned about China's power shortages, China Daily reported Friday.
Developing a wind power industry might be an answer to this serious issue, industry experts say.
Insufficient power generation
Since 2000, China has been fallen short in power supply. In 2002, 12 provincial grids had to restrict power supplies during summer and winter. In 2003 the figure increased to 23.
Experts attribute the shortages to the nation's insufficient power generation capacity.
Statistics indicate that at present, per capita power generation in China is small, only equal to one-thirteenth of that of the United States, and one-eighth of Japan's generated electricity per person.
"China needs a total generation capacity of at least 1.5 billion kilowatts by 2010," says former minister of energy Huang Yicheng.
He says that according to the general rules of power demand, on average, one kilowatt of power generation capacity is demanded for the use of one person.
However, the country's installed capacity of generators, by the end of last year, was 385 million kilowatts.
"Such a huge gap cannot be filled solely by coal-fired power plants," Huang says.
Even if China has rich enough coal resources to produce such a huge amount of electricity, the global environment could not bear large pollutant emissions, he says.
It is estimated that China will discharge 1.4 to 1.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide by the year 2020, ranking as a top polluter in the world, if the country continues to develop coal-fired power plants.
Currently, China's coal reserves amount to 823 billion tons, of which 139 billion tons are exploitable.
Calculations based on the country's coal consumption last year indicate that the coal reserve could provide supplies for 83 years. If consumption doubles, it could only last for 20 years.
It is also impossible to fill the supply gap by developing hydropower.
Hydro resources which could be utilized stand at 390 million kilowatts, which would only double the current total generation capacity and total power output.
Therefore, developing new clean and renewable energies, such as solar energy, methane, wind energy, and ocean energy, is important for solving China's power shortage.
Among these energies, the use of wind in power generation is at the most advanced level of commercialization.
Wind power worldwide
Although the wind power industry is only a relative newcomer in the area of energy production, the sector has enjoyed rapid development in recent years, with an annual growth of 30 per cent worldwide.
Countries such as Germany, Spain and Denmark have the fastest growth in the sector.
Germany built 1,700 new wind power generation units last year, adding an installed capacity of 2.64 million kilowatts for the country.
Currently, wind power accounts for five per cent of its total power generation. The German Government plans to increase the ratio to 10-12 per cent by 2010, and 50 per cent by 2050.
This rapid development is due to technological improvements. The average generating capacity for one unit has reached 1,500 kilowatts.
The figure is even higher in Denmark, where it is as high as 2,000 to 2,200 kilowatts per unit.
Development potential
China has huge potential to develop a wind power industry, as it boasts rich wind resources.
According to the calculation of the China Meteorological Administration conducted in the 1980s, usable wind resources from 10-metre-high stands can help generate 253 million kilowatts of electricity.
"The figure is smaller than the real wind resources that could be utilized," says Zhu Ruizhao, an expert from the meteorological administration.
The administration is to organize a new round of surveys for wind resources, he said.
Former energy minister Huang estimates that usable wind resources are about 500 million kilowatts on land, while wind resources above sea areas are three to five times.
In addition to abundant resources, wind power generation also has advantages over other power generation means in different ways, Huang says.
First, wind power is environmentally-friendly, and is seen as an effective way to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and solve environmental problems.
Second, the use rate of wind power generators is higher than hydropower generators, because where there is wind, there is power.
In China, hydropower generators could be utilized for some 2,500 hours a year on average.
But wind power generators could be used for 2,500 to 3,000 hours a year.
Third, wind power could be complementary to hydropower, as China's wind seasons are in spring and winter usually dry seasons for rivers.
A research report named Wind Force 12, jointly issued by Greenpeace and the Europe Wind Energy Association and China Renewable Industry Association earlier this year, says by 2020, world wind power output will account for 12 per cent of the total power generation while, with abundant wind resources, China would possibly contribute 14 per cent of the global electricity generated by wind energy.
Alluring more investors
Encouraged by the rosy prospects, many investors, not only State-owned power conglomerates, but also private and foreign investors, have set their sights on the sector.
Xing Feng Da Sci-tech Group, established in 2003, has devoted itself to the wind power generation industry.
It is now building two wind power electricity generating fields in Guanting in North China's Hebei Province and in Qixia in East China's Shandong Province, with a total installed capacity of 1 million kilowatts.
The projects, with a total investment of US$600 million, have attracted US$200 million venture capital from the US firm AOB Commerce Inc.
"We believe China's wind power sector will witness great development, and the company would get a good return," said AOB President Nelson Liao.
He says AOB stands to get an 8 per cent return from its investment in the two projects.
Overseas power firms are also taking part in the sector's development.
According to an agreement signed between Erenhot city in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and the Avalon Power Corp of Canada, the largest wind power generation station in Asia will be built in the region before 2008.
With a US$1.2 billion investment, the generating capacity of the station will reach 1 million kilowatts.
Slow development
However, the overall development of wind power in China is still at a low level.
The country now has 40 wind power fields in operation, which generated 560,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity last year.
The figure is small compared to Germany's 14.61 million kilowatts and the world's 39.12 million kilowatts.
Experts say that the development of the wind power sector in China is being hindered by huge investment and high production costs.
Investment in wind power plants is much higher than coal power stations, as the country has not developed technology in the field and investors need to buy equipment from foreign producers, Huang says.
He says one unit of an imported generator costs 580,000 yuan (US$70,000), while a domestic-made one costs about 100,000 yuan (US$12,000).
However, localization for equipment production is still at a low level. The huge investment results in a high price for electricity generated by wind power.
At present, the grid price for electricity generated by wind energy is over 0.4 yuan (4.8 US cents), but that for coal power is just more than 0.2 yuan (2.4 US cents) per kilowatt hour.
"An industry cannot develop if its products sell at high prices," he says.
How to promote industry
Huang suggests that the government should provide policies to support domestic wind power equipment producers to develop their own technical know-how instead of relying on imports.
"Technology transfer is an easier way to develop the sector," he says.
Domestically-made equipment could make production costs of wind power generation lower by at least 50 per cent, which will give wind power competitiveness over coal power in the long term, he adds.
Shi Pengfei, senior engineer for the new energy project of China Hydropower Engineering Consulting Group Co, provides a different perspective.
He suggests setting down a relatively high but reasonable grid price for electricity generated by wind power.
"Reasonable returns in the early stages could help lure more investors in the sector and drive its rapid development," Shi says.
He also suggests encouraging individual investors to take part in the sector.
In China's coastal areas, which boast rich wind resources, a large number of farmers own large areas of unused land, which could be used to install small-scale wind power generators.
Farmers invest lands and generation equipment, then sell electricity to power firms who could build factories nearby.
In addition, the idea of developing mud flat wind power stations is worthy of discussion, as there are large areas of mud flats in coastal regions, Shi says.
"If developed properly, it is possible that wind power generation could reach 30 to 40 per cent of the country's total power consumption in the long term, especially when domestic technology is improved and offshore wind power plants are built," he says.
Xinhua News Sept 04
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